The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to think so. A minimum of in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market as well. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked with numerous bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very highly regarded gamer."
Even though respected money has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with numerous bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has sneaked up somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at many sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State money."
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before respected money pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat higher bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Put simply, the sports betting action.
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Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Being Available In On Texas'
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